Understanding BREXIT & The Dilemma Of PM Theresa May

Friends I believe many of you (especially those outside the UK) may be wondering what’s all this fuss about Brexit. Well let me try to explain what the issues are:

1. It’s not news that the UK voted in 2016 to leave the European Union (EU). 51.9% voted to leave and 48.1% voted to remain. David Cameron whose campaign promise was to hold the vote resigned his job as Prime Minister (PM) because he supported and voted remain therefore he excused himself from presiding over the exit.2. Mrs. Theresa May won the conservative party leadership contest therefore automatically became PM. In the UK there’s no general election for PM instead whoever is the leader of the party with the majority of Members of Parliament (MPs) becomes PM. The twist here is that Mrs May herself supported and voted remain but took up a job to preside over exit.

3. On 29th March 2017, the Prime Minister triggered ARTICLE 50 which is the clause in the EU agreement that sets in motion the exit of a member state. It provides a 2-year timeline to conclude the exit process. If you have been hearing of 29th March 2019 deadline then know that it’s 2 years from the date article 50 was triggered.

4. Mrs May in order to assert her authority and test her popularity decided to call for a snap election in 2017 before she commenced work on the exit. She lost the majority the conservative party held in Parliament therefore could not form a government. She had to go into a coalition with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). So if you’ve been hearing of DUP that’s how they have become a key part of the jigsaw. If the DUP withdraw their support the conservative government of PM May will collapse. Meanwhile the DUP don’t want a united Ireland (that’s Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland forming a union). I’ll come back to this later.

5. After rounds and rounds of negotiations between the UK and EU amid resignations of key figures in PM May’s cabinet, a draft EU exit deal  was said to have been reached last month. This draft EU deal was presented to the UK Parliament for ratification and a vote on it was scheduled today. However the PM saw the handwriting on the wall that she will be heavily defeated and at the last minute decided to call off the vote.

6. The draft EU divorce agreement is not supported by remainders (for obvious reasons) and a majority of exiters for the following reasons:

See part 2


Prerequisite – Part 1

The draft EU exit agreement tabled before the UK House of Commons is not supported by a majority of MPs which has forced the Prime Minister (PM) Mrs Theresa May to call off the vote on it at the last minute to avoid a heavy defeat.

Mrs May instead embarked on a shuttle diplomacy across Europe meeting with the German Chancellor, the PM of the Netherlands and EU Council President. Mrs May is hoping to get better terms in the draft EU exit agreement for the clauses that have caused her much grief and has her government in revolt mode. Based on the comments released thereafter by the German Chancellor and the EU Commission President, Mrs May may just have wasted her fuel and time on a fruitless junketing.

The opposition leader in the UK Parliament Jeremy Corbyn said on the floor that Mrs May ran away from Parliament to avoid defeat and has called upon her to resign so as not to further demean the office of PM.

So what are the terms in the draft divorce bill that have landed Mrs May in such hot okro soup:

1. Those who voted remain will not support any exit bill because to them remaining in the EU is the best option for the country. Since the result of the referendum was tight, Mrs May has lost about half of the country before she even started.2. Majority of those who voted exit did so expecting a complete break from the EU (this is what is called HARD BREXIT). This will entail EU rules adjudicated by the EU courts of justice will no longer be applicable to the UK. Stoppage of free movement.

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